Friday, February 23, 2018

Parkland Gun Violence


Gun Violence - What Can Be Done?
Following the recent massacre that brutally left seventeen bright children dead in the hallways of their school in Parkland, Florida, the response on various issues has been predictably impassioned and debated in depth.  But, this time feels different.  Why?  I believe it’s because we have now seen two separate tipping points; tipping points on both end of the spectrum, both in terms of gun violence/mass shootings and in terms of action on problem solving. Let me explain.

A good friend, Dr. Alex McDonald, is one who is actively trying to do his part as he was involved with the American Academy of Family Physicians as they joined other frontline physicians, including the American Psychiatric Association, in a public call for the government to act on gun violence, in large part by labeling it a public health epidemic.1  

An epidemic?  Many people will be skeptical about the use of that word.  Merriam-Webster defines an epidemic as excessively prevalent and/or characterized by very widespread growth or extent.  So, yes, it is fair to call gun violence a public health epidemic, especially when you compare it to other accepted epidemics.  For example, the swine flu epidemic in 2015 killed 2,035 people and the Ebola virus epidemic killed somewhere north of 11,300 people from 2013-2016.2  Meanwhile, there are close to 13,000 gun HOMICIDES per year in the US alone.3  Furthermore, looking at the data from the number of mass shootings4,5, and the number of deaths and injuries6 from mass shootings, it is easy to see that that there has been an exponential rise over the past few years.  2016 tied 2012 with the most ever mass shooting fatalities to that point, then 2017 saw a 61% increase over that, and 2018 is on pace to continue the trend, which is, again, part of what constitutes an epidemic.  There are many charts that are easy enough to find, but I’ve included a couple for reference.  Yes, there have been spikes for a year here and there in the past, as you would expect, but never have we seen a period like the one we are in now and the trend is clear, which you can see easier if you do a best fit curve or smooth it out by mapping different lengths of time.  And, this doesn’t even take into account thwarted attacks such as we saw just last week in Vermont.7





This got me thinking of someone else who talked about epidemics; Malcolm Gladwell, in his book ‘The Tipping Point’.  The premise of his book is that there are epidemics in many aspects of life, which ‘are a function of the people who transmit infectious agents, the infectious agent itself, and the environment in which the infectious agent is operating’ and that each epidemic has a tipping point where factors, sometimes seemingly small, cause ideas, products, messages, or behaviors to spread just like viruses do. 

So, what has been the tipping point?  Some say violent video games, movies, and television, while others say mental illness, or public security.  Sure, those may play a small factor and, without a doubt, there has to be more done in terms of mental health.  But, those have been around for a long time and other countries have the same access, illnesses, and security without anywhere close to the United States’ level of gun violence so it’s got to be deeper than that.  We must look at what is different, what has changed, and what has caused that tipping point.  Here are a few that I see:

·         Rise in popularity of social media platforms

·         Rise in the prevalence of hate groups

·         Number of and access to weapons and bullets

Most of these perpetrators have a warped sense of striving for infamy.  Sadly, the media gives perpetrators their fifteen minutes of fame and many in the public even remember their names.  That concept of fame is combined with support that can be found online for just about any sick fetish along with the rise in various forms of social media connecting these people to both supporters and those that anger them giving these, often otherwise outcasted individuals, platforms that empower them.  Most perpetrators have been found to have posted clues online or to have been frequent visitors to certain sites.  In addition, in this same timeframe, there has been a 20% rise in hate groups in the US8, with a rise in number each year.  I don’t think this is a coincidence.  While not all mass shooters are associated with a hate group, it certainly often plays a factor and the similarity of the underlying psyche shouldn’t be ignored.  For example, the last one I can remember in my area involved the killing of Muslim students.  Finally, the number of guns in the US along with the ease of access to these weapons and bullets is far greater than anywhere else in the world.9  Further along these lines, most perpetrators of mass shootings have more than one gun and a frighteningly large number of bullets at the time of the shooting.10  I believe this mix has created the tipping point causing the spike in gun violence over the past few years.

But, like I said, the reaction and discussion after this latest tragedy feels different and I think we’re seeing a tipping point in that respect, as well.  For too long we have seen our own citizens killed with no substantial attempts at solving the problem.  So, what has changed? 

·         Less time between tragedies

·         Exposure of lobbyist influence and political hypocrisy

·         Children victims/survivors organizing and speaking up

Part of the change is that the increase in tragedies has not allowed enough time to pass that scars have formed.  This enables the momentum to keep going and makes the argument that ‘now is not the time to talk about it’ sound as ridiculous as it is, while at the same time continually increasing the number of people either directly or indirectly affected by the violence.  Also, after each tragedy that results in inaction, we find out more about the amount of money lobbyists such as the NRA spend, which politicians are in their pocket, and how politicians have voted on different measures.  This is important because the more exposure there is, the more likely there will be change as it will be more difficult for these politicians to win votes as public anger builds.  Finally, the biggest difference we’re seeing this time around is that a group of very intelligent, passionate, and motivated young survivors have exposed the raw emotion and heartbreak that gun violence has caused in a way that most of the public have not seen in the past.  It’s harder for leaders to push them aside without looking cruel, and it’s resulted in more media coverage, top politicians listening, and several politicians making promises of steps that have been ignored until now as they strive to ride this wave.  These kids have forced Congress’ and the President’s hands.  Even if these new proposals don’t pass now, they won’t be forgotten the next time we see a tragedy.  So, one way or another, I believe we’ve seen a tipping point in which action will finally start taking place.

Now, what action should be taken is the million dollar question.  As mentioned, I fully support improvements in mental health.  This would involve research, care, and restrictions to guns for those with certain kinds of mental illness.  Arming teachers is definitely NOT something I support.  My parents were school teachers and I went to a public school system, contrary to most of the politicians proposing this.  Besides the disturbing fact that teachers are expected to pay for their own supplies but it’s being proposed that they be supplied with guns or get bonuses if they carry, I’ve seen and known of many student/teacher altercations that could have been catastrophic if the teacher had a gun to name just one of the many problems with this proposal.  However, I do support armed guards or veterans at schools along with metal detectors.  I wish we didn’t need them, but I think it would help.  Obviously, the FBI could and should have done a better job in the Parkland situation and they need to address those shortcomings.  I also support closer scrutiny and research into markers from social media use, online site, and hate groups.  I do NOT support repealing the second amendment.  I do NOT support taking the average person’s guns away.  I do support increasing the age limits for gun ownership, assault weapon limitations, bump stock bans, and longer waiting periods to name a few others.  Other options such as taxing bullets, limiting the number of bullets purchased within a certain amount of time, limiting the size of magazines, restrictions on certain felons, stalkers, or domestic violence offenders can be looked into.

There are a lot of common sense actions that can be undertaken if only people are willing to.  Will they stop every shooting tragedy?  Of course not.  It’s extremely rare a solution is 100% effective.  But saying things like ‘bad people will always find a way’ or ‘guns don’t kill people, people kill people’ is completely ignorant.  Our laws and criminal system is pretty darn good at keeping a safe and efficient society.  And, while people may still find ways to commit murders and/or get their hands on assault weapons, why make it easy for them?  If it saves even a few lives, it makes a big difference and can be done without harming anyone.  That sounds like a simple win-win.  On the other hand, such things as arguing about the definition and number of mass shootings is irrelevant and does nothing to address the problem.  Whether it’s three or four killed at a time or five or eighteen shootings this year, it’s too many.  Trust me, I understand the thrill of firearms.  It’s a rush to hit a target or clay pigeon.  But, weapons that serve no real purpose but have been used to kill human beings should be heavily regulated at minimum.  We pass important safety laws and regulations in so many other cases, we spend billions of dollars protecting us from things that don’t cause a single percentage of the damage of gun violence, we know it makes a difference.  To say ‘I feel badly but just don’t know what can be done’ is false.  It’s obvious what can be done, we just have to be brave enough to do it.  The biggest argument I see against these points is along the lines of the second amendment and the feeling that these actions would somehow weaken the amendment with the potential to lead to the degradation of our constitution.  However, ensuring safe limitations within the spirit of the second amendment, just as has been done with the first amendment is doable and makes sense.  Our forefathers were smart and were problem solvers.  Their writing of the constitution was in part to ensure and fair and safe democratic society.  For example, the idea behind freedom of religion was in large part because they saw the internal strife and loss of life that had occurred in other countries without that freedom.  They would not merely sit on their hands as more people die in their country from a single factor than all wars combined.  There’s a reason they called for a ‘well regulated’ militia. 

Listening to the fear mongering, inaccurate, and downright disturbing speech by the NRA Chief Executive, Wayne LaPierre, yesterday brought all of this into more of a focus.  No, I don’t hate the second amendment or individual freedom.  No, I’m not trying to form a socialist society.  I couldn’t care less about what political affiliation you are.  I care about doing what’s right and finding ways to combat an epidemic that has led to a massive loss of innocent life.  To claim that people trying to do so are simply exploiting the tragedy is ludicrous and shows the depth that some will go to in order to push their agenda.

I applaud Trump for having the listening session and stating support for the bump stock ban and age limit increase.  However, we need to see real action from him, congress, among others and hopefully we will.  Just along the points I’ve made about what caused this tipping point, take these actions into consideration and then consider the momentum we’re seeing now:

·         Trump’s only gun legislation to this point has been to REVOKE restrictions and gun checks for the mentally ill11

·         The Trump administration REMOVED a program grant at UNC after it had already been awarded that studied anti-extremism and white supremacy.12

·         A bill addressing bump stocks was introduced into congress after the Las Vegas concert massacre with the supposed support of the NRA and some politicians with the obvious expectation that it would go nowhere, which it did.

·         Trump has called for an assault weapons ban, longer waiting periods, and bump stock bans in the past only to reverse his stances and/or do nothing13

·         Trump’s budget proposal calls for CUTS to programs aimed at school safety, responding to school violence, and research into gun violence14


THIS MUST CHANGE

Yes, we have seen a tipping point that has caused a spike in gun violence and mass shootings, especially over the past few years.  But, I’m fairly confident and hopeful that we’ve also now seen the tipping point, or are at least very close to one, in which we will finally start to see some important steps taken by our leaders to make a multi-faceted approach to combating this epidemic.  It falls on all of us to continue the pressure and accept the fact that we CAN create a safer nation around improvements to mental health, public safety, and gun control within the boundaries of our constitution.


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Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Romance and Offshore Drilling


A story as old as time

 On a cool yet comfortable cloudless evening, two young lovers finish a romantic stroll hand-in-hand along a gentle surf.  The soft dunes of fine white sand call to us and we sit atop the tallest nearby mound overlooking the quiet beach, the vast expanse of undisturbed ocean, and the falling sun in the sky.  As the sun sets with a brilliant array of colors, she leans in, gives me a gentle kiss, and places her head on my shoulder as I lean mine on top of hers.  We continue to sit in a comfortable silence, each imagining what the other is thinking, as the horizon blurs and slowly melds the distant water and the darkening sky into one continuous surreal vista.  Did we hold that embrace minutes?  Hours?  Eternity.  The only sounds are the rhythmic and peaceful breaking of the placid waves and the occasional melody of a seagull.  Meanwhile, mutual feelings of peace, insignificance, and a sense of fresh possibilities and inspiration concurrently invade our minds as our solitude causes us to internalize and contemplate our place and time in the universe.  Anything seems possible.  Conflict seems unnecessary, selfish, and short-sighted.  Our luck in finding each other a palpable sensation.  We slide closer.  Suddenly, as if in a fairytale, our eyes are drawn slightly upward in wonder as we trace the path of a shooting star as it speeds across the darkness glowing ever brighter before finally puffing out.  “We’re supposed to make wishes now”, she whispers to me. 

This is a true personal story.  We would go on to get married and, over twenty years after this sensational experience, we are still happily espoused and this memory will always be one of my favorites.  I like to believe that our wishes from that night continue to play themselves out.

Like so many others, what drew us to the beach and led to that beautiful and unforgettable moment was the awe-inspiring vastness of uninterrupted ocean water as far as the eye can see sparking the mind’s imagination to engage and priorities to be reorganized.  Similar scenes have caused poets to wax eloquently, writers to find their words, painters to turn canvases into masterpieces, lovers to dream, and geniuses to focus. 

Sadly, in typical Trump administration fashion, they have moved to open all of the US coastline to offshore drilling for oil and gas.  Oh, sorry, all except Florida where his precious Mar-a-lago estate just happens to be.  This should frustrate you emotionally if you’ve ever sat on a beach and enjoyed the view.  Of course, there is also the issue of environmental concerns.  Even if succumb to not believing in human’s effect on climate change, there is still the matter of pollution and contamination.  You must also consider the negative financial impacts on tourism at coastal communities due to disturbed beach views.  I’ve been to cities that have drilling platforms off the coast and it doesn’t inspire any sense of awe and detracts from desires to hit the beach.  It’s not like more oil drilling is even needed.  OPEC has been asking the US to REDUCE drilling for years as there has been a glut in supply.  As most will tell you, the promise being made is that it will result in job creation.  On the other hand, our national unemployment rate is below the point at which the Federal Reserve considers full employment.  While we can always do better, we MUST always ask “at what cost”.  Hurting the economies and jobs along the coast, harming the environment, and destroying pristine nature are but a few of the reasons that this is definitely not worth it.  Not at this time, if ever, in this instance. 

As I’ve stated many times in the past, Trump has an obvious propensity and bias to promote oil and coal as many of his decisions have gone above and beyond to increase their profits while cutting protections for workers, slashing regulations designed to keep our environment safe and clean, and, as in this case, going against the wishes of leaders in both parties.  Opening up the nation’s coastlines to drilling is more of the same, just a more extreme version.  There are so many crazy issues occurring constantly that it’s impossible for the concerned public to stay focused on particular topics.  This is one, though, that we need to remain steadfast about.  With the very rare exception, politicians of neither party or any coastal state wants this.  The hypocrisy of an administration that touts its extreme view of state’s rights and minimal federal government making this decision against that states’ wishes should worry everyone.  Many other issues need to be dealt with right now, too, obviously, but let’s not let this one slide.

Eric Trump made a statement last week that his dad, the President, isn’t a racist by stating, “My father sees one color, green.”  The irony, as someone close to me pointed out, is that seeing only one color is basically the definition of racism!  Of course, this wouldn’t be in the traditional sense, so I’ll call it economic racism:  the misguided belief that making more money at the top is more important than clean air, clean water, the health and wealth of those less fortunate, etc. and the failure to see the more beneficial long-term effects to the economy that would result in a more balanced, forward-thinking approach.

Let’s inspire more of this:
     On the beach at night alone,
As the old mother sways her to and fro singing her husky song, As I watch the bright stars shining, I think a thought of the clef of the universes and of the future.

A vast similitude interlocks all,
All spheres, grown, ungrown, small, large, suns, moons, planets,
All distances of place however wide,
All distances of time, all inanimate forms,
All souls, all living bodies though they be ever so different, or in different worlds,
All gaseous, watery, vegetable, mineral processes, the fishes, the brutes,
All nations, colors, barbarisms, civilizations, languages,
All identities that have existed or may exist on this globe, or any globe,
All lives and deaths, all of the past, present, future,
This vast similitude spans them, and always has spann'd,
And shall forever span them and compactly hold and enclose them.
- ‘On the Beach at Night Alone’ by Walt Whitman

Rather than as Robert Graves, noted war poet, stated in ‘The Beach’
The horny boatman, who has seen whales
And flying fishes, who has sailed as far
As Demerara and the Ivory Coast,
Will warn them, when they crowd to hear his talks,
That every ocean smells of tar.

We deserve better.  As we stand together, we will be better.
- Dave Williams

 Which would you rather stare out at?
Solo swim





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Thursday, December 21, 2017

Tax Reform


Tax reform.  Lower taxes.  More money in your pocket.  Government taking less of your hard-earned income.  GREAT!  Who wouldn’t want that, right?  And, that’s the depth of thinking and ego-centric mentality that this administration is counting on from the public.  Luckily, it looks like most Americans are smarter than given credit for and are capable and willing to ask the important question ‘at what cost?’ as proven by how unpopular the tax cuts are.  Let’s take a closer look at some of the pros and cons.

·         Yes, most people will have less of a tax obligation over the next few years.  This will make many happy, of course.  Speaking for myself, it appears I start off by saving a whopping 1.4%, but over the course of the decade that reverses to actually become a slight INCREASE in taxes.  Of course, I realize some other middle-income earners get a bigger savings in the short term.  If you just focus on that, it looks good for the time being.  However, at the same time the healthcare premiums are expected to increase an extra 10% per year due to revisions in the reform according to the nonpartisan CBO and other experts.  This alone wipes out much of the benefits for many in the lower to middle class.  On top of that, because this reform adds to the deficit, it’s highly likely that governmental spending cuts will be proposed that will directly and negatively impact the financial well-being of those in the lower to middle class the most.

·         One growing sentiment throughout this process that I don’t like is the resentment toward the wealthy.  While there are a group of rich folks that are taking advantage of the system, using politics for personal gain, and performing a blatant power grab, there are also many others in this exclusive club that aren’t, that are doing positive things for the community, and are disgusted by what is going on.  I’m all for people succeeding and happy for wealthy people who have earned my respect.  That’s not the problem.  The problem is how unfair the system, and this new tax reform, is.  On average, the middle income earners get a tax cut worth 1.6% of their after-tax income where as those making $308,000 to $733,000 get a 3.4% and the top 0.1% get a 2.7% cut respectively.  Besides just being a higher percentage, you must realize that it is a higher percentage of a much higher starting income number, which makes the tax gains that much more skewed.  Plus, meaningful cuts for the wealthy are permanent but those for the rest are set to expire!  While politicians say they will be made permanent, that is far from a foregone conclusion.  In my opinion, these percentages should be swapped, it nothing else.             

o   The widening gap between the upper and middle class is well known, as are the damaging effects that are the result.  This bill only exasperates this important issue.  It may make those in the middle class happy to see a tax cut, but it exponentially increases the divide between the classes as the top percentage get to take advantage of a system that largely benefits them.  In addition, it keeps unfair advantages, such as those for hedge fund managers, that the President himself has pointed out as excessive.  Wall Street will love these cuts and the stock market is likely to continue to grow due to it.  Of course, it is largely the wealthy who have money invested in the markets further deepening the divide.

·         Yes, there will likely be growth to both the economy and jobs due to the tax cut bill.  The question is how much and is it worth it?  As for how much, looking past the extremes from either side, the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center estimates an increase in GDP by 0.8% in 2018 tapering to little effect by 2027, creating $186 Billion in the first decade from a bill with a cost of $1.5 Trillion on which interest will have to also be paid, and an increase debt as a share of GDP by 5 percentage points to 97% of GDP by 2027 and to 117% of GDP by 2037.  So, even if GDP grows at their estimated 0.29% per year, we are worse off.  The number of full-time equivalent jobs created is estimated by the Tax Foundation to be 339,000.  That may sound good until you put it into perspective: there were 261,000 jobs created in October alone, which is in line with recent trends.  For example, there were 1.357 million jobs created in Obama’s last seven months and 1.189 million in Trump’s first seven months.  So, the relatively small amount of job growth at such a large cost is staggering. 

·         Only the most biased/conservative estimates have the bill coming anywhere close to paying for itself.  Most republicans who voted for the bill even recognize the increase to the deficit that it will cause.  It’s been interesting to hear how they’re tying to spin it.  I found myself chuckling when I heard one senator say that it’s only increasing the deficit something like 1-2%, realizing that some people will hear it as a small number when put into percentage terms and think it’s not a big deal.  But, yes, of course it is a big deal when you’re ADDING up to a TRILLION DOLLARS to an already high deficit and to what is already over a $20 TRILLION DEBT!  The interest alone is unfathomable.  They know this.  But, they wanted to push this bill through and then say that spending is out of control to make other cuts that will predominately end up hurting the lower to middle class yet again.  I know that sounds like a democratic talking point, but it’s a very logical and likely conclusion here.  There is a reason the AARP and American Public Health Association have spoken out against this bill (https://www.apha.org/news-and-media/news-releases/apha-news-releases/2017/tax-legislation-and-health-care)

·         Some say that we’re already seeing the wage benefits!  AT&T, Comcast, and Boeing have already agreed to give employees a bonus!  This is good, but it’s funny how many people jump on it as proof that the tax plan is going to work.  First of all, let’s think about this.  AT&T is currently in the government’s crosshairs over an immense merger dispute.  Comcast, along with AT&T, just benefited immensely from last week’s net neutrality ruling.  And, Boeing is engrossed in a major international governmental trade dispute with Bombardier.  Everyone knows that it really helps to get on Trump’s good side and it’s no surprise that these three would be among the first to praise the tax reform.  Besides, it’s a one-time bonus.  And, yes, some wages are likely to go up slightly.  However, it has been observed time and time again that most companies don’t turn over the majority of their profits to their employees, but to shareholders, investors, and top executives.  Paul Ryan has been fond of saying that a supposed survey of companies say that they will invest otherwise.  But, that’s like a first grade teacher surveying a group of students asking if they’ll behave if they were to be given a bag of candy during class.  Of course, they’re going to say they will!  We have seen for many years that executives give themselves disproportionate bonuses and salaries over other employees and push profits to investors.  This is well known and many of those passing this bill are among those that have lamented on this fact in the past.

·         Unemployment is at a 17-year low.  Growth is at a 3-year high.  Companies are more profitable than ever1.  Tax reform was perhaps needed, yes.  But, the measures taken were unnecessary and simply irresponsible.  Not only is it not likely to stimulate enough growth to help the deficit, it will add to it.  But, to make matters worse, when a downturn happens we now have frighteningly little room to maneuver to offer a stimulus.  So, yes, while companies get even bigger profits, which are rewarded to wealthy shareholders, those in the middle class are getting at least a little bit of income back as well.  However, just as an example of their irresponsibility, at the same time congressmen celebrate this rush to tax reform they are pushing off funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program and decision on Dreamers.  Wealth of the rich over the health of the less fortunate.   It was also irresponsible because they failed to listen to or to represent the majority of their concerned citizens, which they are supposedly elected to do.

·         Finally, the simple-minded President literally showed how little he cares if he causes people to suffer from his actions when one of the first things he said after the passage of the bill was “Obamacare has been repealed in this bill.”  (as an aside - IT HASN’T) “We didn’t want to bring it up,” he said. “I told people specifically, ‘Be quiet with the fake-news media because I don’t want them talking too much about it.’ Because I didn’t know how people would —.” Trump didn’t finish that thought, but he said he could admit what had been done “now that it’s approved.”2  First of all, he thinks we are a bunch of idiots.  But, he also shows that he knew how wrong his action was, or at least how unpopular.  However, people did know that the healthcare provision was added as part of the bill and the majority were very much against it.  It was widely publicized how many on both sides reacted negatively to the fact that congressmen were trying to include healthcare into a tax reform bill just because they thought it would pass.  The fact that the President would purposely include a provision knowing that it could cause our healthcare system to falter, hurting millions of Americans, is disturbing, albeit predictable from this President (I, among many others, literally did predict he would undermine the ACA).  But, for him to brag about the fact that he (or so he thinks) did it in such a way as to hide it from the very people he is supposed to represent is reprehensible. 



Most will see some tax benefits over the next several years, there will likely be a boost to our economy, and there may be some job creation and wage increases.  These are all good things.  However, it adds to an out of control deficit, exacerbates the divide between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’, and leaves little room for stimulus when needed. 



My prediction is that between this tax cut and jobs act and the extreme deregulation of this administration, we will see a slight boon for a short while followed by either a stagnate or, more likely, faltering economy within the next 5-10 years and perhaps sooner.  I hope I’m wrong or hope that changes will be made so that we won’t see that prediction come to fruition.








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Friday, December 1, 2017

Golden Anniversary


GOLDEN ANNIVERSARY


The best we can hope for during our short tenure on this planet is to leave the world a slightly better place, make a lasting and positive impact on both present and future generations, and share it with loved ones.  As my in-laws, Katie and Ramon Jereza, celebrated their 50th wedding anniversary over the weekend by renewing their vows followed by an amazing reception in front of about 170 of their closest family and friends, it was beautiful to bear witness to a couple that has succeeded in this task in a manner that few can proclaim and who have set an impossible precedent that I will eternally strive to grow towards.  It is not lost on me how unbelievably fortunate I am to have two amazing sets of parents who have been married for 48 years on my side and 50 years on Monette’s, all of whom have always been there for us through thick and thin, as role models who epitomize what marriage is meant to be.

“But, I ordered this meal because it’s what I wanted to eat!”  My first experience with the Jereza clan was after a swim meet in December of 1994 when I joined much of the family at a nice dinner at the Back Bay Seafood Restaurant in Morgantown, WV.  For those that don’t know, Monette is one of eight children and several had come up for the swim meet and dinner, as did her parents and kind grandmother.  Needless to say, being a freshman in college and meeting much of the family for the first time, I was nervous and intimidated.  To make matters worse, I basically grew up on farm food and had never eaten seafood before, so my comfortable options were limited.  The family was wonderful, of course, and made me feel welcome and at ease.  That is, until the food arrived.  The waitress put the delicious food down on the table and as soon as she walked away the Jereza’s began passing the plates around the table to share their food.  What was going on?  I had ordered one of the few items that I knew I would like.  I leaned over to Monette with a nervous stare and she whispered, “Just pass it around.  You don’t have to take anything you don’t want to, but try something new!”  That sounded like great advice, but I was also a young collegiate swimmer who ate about 5000 calories per day and could only envision myself not taking or liking anything else and getting my original plate back with little food left on it.  However, I heeded Monette’s advice and reluctantly took some of the seafood that was passed around.  It set a precedent that continues to this day, in which I am willing and eager to try new things, experiences, and customs.  Monette’s dad encouraged me to try some spicy food, which I have grown fond of, and I discovered the general truth that Old Bay seasoning can make just about anything taste good.

I have way too many fond memories and feelings of the Jereza’s to put into a short blog.  From joining Monette’s dad to play in the only golf tournament I’ve ever competed in which ended up being my best round to date, to hiking up Diamond Head, crossing the Capilano suspension bridge, and watching in surprise as hundreds in a ‘naked bike ride’ rode past us during travels to races, to them taking care of half of the swim team for days as we got stuck in a snow storm on our way home from our winter training trip, to the nerves of asking for their permission to marry their daughter, I’ve always looked up to them with the utmost admiration and they’ve always been the most generous and fun in-laws I could imagine. 

To say that Monette’s dad is a doctor is like describing the Mona Lisa as a painting, while factually true there are a few necessary superlatives missing.  He is a board certified internist/cardiologist who for most of his career worked with a team at the Doctor’s Clinic in Beckley while also working for Raleigh General Hospital.  There were countless times when I’d go to bed and he wouldn’t be home yet and then he’d already be gone to start his day by the time I woke up the next morning.  You mention his name around Beckley and you’re sure to hear someone proclaiming what an incredible man he is.  As busy as he was, though, he lived by the tenants he preached while always making time for his family and putting them first and, as Monette mentioned during the ceremony, always gave her mom a kiss in the morning, before he left for work, and when he returned home.    

But, if there was one person who could outwork Dr. Jereza it was his own wife.  Katie somehow kept everything in order, cooked the meals, and made sure to get all eight kids to their various activities on time, and there were many activities including dance, swimming, tennis, piano lessons, band, church, softball, and so on.  That alone could be a full-time job.  But, she also managed the clinic and ran their books for many years – by hand, no less - and also worked as a nurse.  She has always been very active with St. Francis de Sales church, as well.  Yet, what I perhaps admire most is that she still has always been willing to step in and help whenever the need arises.  Just one of a plethora of examples of this is when the school found themselves in need of a swim coach.  Having no swimming background to speak of, let alone a coaching background, she agreed to give it a shot.  And, she didn’t just step in.  For the years that she was the coach, which spanned over a decade, she went undefeated! 

Marriage is tough at times.  Being married to a doctor who works long hours can be challenging.  The trials and tribulations that come with eight children can put vows to the test.  And yet, the Jereza’s have shown unwavering love and support for each other over the past 50 years that the rest of us can only dream to emulate.
The Jereza Clan

The mentality and skills passed down by Ramon and Katie were on display as the children gave brief speeches during the reception.  Tina, who put together a professional-level slide show of her parents' 50 years of marriage, mentioned how the four tenants her parents stressed provided their children the ARMS needed to have a healthy, happy, and successful life as they were encouraged to delve deeply into each discipline of the acronym.

A = Academics
R = Religion
M = Music
S = Sports
Brothers-in-law (aka - a UN Meeting)
Each aspect played an important component in the well-rounded and well-adjusted children they would have.  Although, someone made a clever anagram out of it and said “sometimes, Dad RAMS it down our throats.”  That got a good laugh!  Katie shared her parent’s influence on her by making an insightful connection to how she always loved singing and playing the piano to One Little Candle with her dad and her current job within the Department of Energy working with the energy grid to literally keep the lights on.  Mayenne eloquently portrayed how her parents made their daughters strong and independent women, even earning a few of them nicknames along those lines.  Gina brought up one of my favorite examples of how everyone can learn from her parents:  their support and willingness to accept people of all kinds.  As she stated, it has been said that her family get togethers are like a UN meeting.  Or, some have described it as the United Colors of Benetton.  Their father is Filipino, their mother is German/Irish from New Jersey, and the immediate family includes white, black, Canadian, and Pakistani; Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, Baptist, and more; democrats and republicans.  Yet, we all manage to get along as a fun and supportive family under the accepting guidance of Katie and Ramon.  Meanwhile, Ping, the youngest and only male sibling, gave an emotional and moving speech which caused many to tear up that started by describing what it was like to grow up with eight mothers.  One can only imagine what that was like!  He then continued by thanking his parents for taking him in and always treating him as one of their own.  Some in the crowd didn’t even know until that moment that he and Rozzana had been adopted from family in the Phillipines, largely because their new parents never thought of them as anything but their own children and never treated them any differently than their other six children.  Rozzana, who was adopted as a teenager, described how it was difficult adjusting at that age, but her parents got her through it all.  Betty was emotional and also contributed brilliantly to the family memorials throughout the day and all eight children exemplify their parents’ values and teachings.  The seven grandkids in attendance even got in on the action with Darren, the oldest and currently in the Air Force, giving an impromptu speech.

Mother and Daughters Dance
Of course, most of what I witness is in relation to my wife, Monette.  It is impossible to describe the respect, admiration, and attachment that Monette has toward both of her parents.  Not only did she have difficulty on the first days of preschool and kindergarten, as some kids are wont to do, she had the same problem starting college and every time she left home after visiting for several years!  Whether she was four or twenty-four years old, though, her parents were there to support and encourage her, knowing just what to do to give her the push she needed.  It also helped that she had the support of family that she could call upon at any time and who kept her company in times of need.  Monette shared during her speech how some of her fondest memories were playing tennis and, later, golf with her dad and swimming under the tutelage of her mom and the few times her mother joined her on the court or course.  Detailing how their influence led to her choice of careers, sports, and travel, and the lessons she carries on from them, she admitted that, “It’s something that I continue to try to pass on to my clients and the kids on our youth team”, the success of which I can personally attest to.  “But,” she said, “perhaps the most important value they showed us growing up, and continue to demonstrate, is their love for one another and their willingness to always be available to anyone in need.”  Of that, there is no question.
About 170 people celebrated Katie and Ramon’s 50th wedding anniversary on Thanksgiving weekend.  That alone shows their impact and respect amongst various groups of friends and a wonderful community ‘family’ around Beckley that they are a part of.  Together, they have made a positive and lasting impact on many people, organizations, and the community at large.  Together, over fifty years, they have demonstrated what true love is.  And, together, they continue to set the benchmark ever higher for those of us trying to make them proud and follow their lead.


Katie and Ramon, Mom and Dad, here’s to you.  Congratulations on the Golden Anniversary and thank you for everything you are, have been, and will always be to both me and Monette.  May we all ‘Live long and prosper’!
Photo credit:  lovingly stolen from Tina Jereza Stamper


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Monday, November 20, 2017

DKW Tax Reform Proposal

TAX REFORM
THOUGHTS AND IDEAS
I don’t like to complain without offering solutions or ideas.  So, with that said, let me try to put something forth for you to consider on Tax Reform.  First, however, please bear with me for a short bit as I explain some of my rationale.  If you would rather just check out my proposed solution, you can skip to the bottom.
"It's going to make life very simple" and "This is a complete redesign of the code, so we can simplify it so much that 9 out of 10 Americans can file using a postcard-style system".  These are statements from the President and GOP Rep Brady talking about their new tax reform proposal.  Somehow, this administration seems to equate ‘simple’ with ‘better’.  They tried to do it with healthcare and continue that line of reasoning with tax reform.  Can these complicated issues be simplified and condensed?  Sure.  To a point.  But, much of the bulk is in place in an effort to help clarify, protect, and create fairness and we’ll run into the same problems that caused those to be written again if they are simply cut out.  Ironically, having said that, I have to make this fairly short since it is a blog and no one will read it if it gets too long!
Nobody really likes having to pay taxes.  On the other hand, most people realize that taxes are an essential part of a well-functioning society, and it’s not a bad thing assuming that the government handles their financial responsibilities fairly and efficiently.  Ah, there’s the crux of the problem! 
I’m a fan of capitalism.  Sure, it has its issues and creates a certain culture of greed, but it also allows for individual growth, encourages a working society, and rewards innovation and ingenuity.  I’ve seen a lot of people say that it’s unfair that the wealthy have to pay more in taxes, that the bulk of tax money comes from the richest among us, and so on.  On the other hand, way too many people have obviously never been in a situation where you don’t visit the doctor for serious issues, even with insurance, because you can’t even afford the copay or when paying a little more in taxes means making tough choices on essential living items or working more overtime.  A small amount of tax difference among the lower earners is relative pocket change to the government, but can make a tremendous impact to the individuals themselves.  Taking 35% of a millionaire’s income still leaves her with more than enough money to survive in luxury.  On the other hand, taking 15% of someone making $25,000 a year already makes substantial impacts.  In a Utopian society and an ideal situation, I’d love to see our government be in a position to be able to offer a low enough and sustainable tax rate that could be equal for everyone that wouldn’t hamper those in the lower and lower-middle class while encouraging financial growth for everyone.  But, that’s not where we are.  Not even close.  With out-of-control national debt and deficit, we absolutely must be smart and efficient and the amount of money needed to be raised from taxes is far too much to be able to tax evenly across the board.  In addition, on a good note, while perhaps not ideal, we are in a good situation right now in terms of jobs, low unemployment rates, and steady growth.  Simply put, it is irresponsible to create cuts that add substantial amounts to the deficit while at the same time leaving very little wiggle room to help the economy when we face a strong downturn. 
While I understand the general idea being pushed that increasing the standard deduction will cover the proposed cuts of some popular and more specific deductions, that mentality overlooks significant issues.  One big issue is that many of those deductions help incentivize specific important segments of the economy and society.  That would include higher education, home ownership, adoption, and charitable contributions, among others.  There has been a lot of detail already published concerning these, so I won’t go into detail here.  But, one that really gets me is the proposal on education and student loans.  While it’s not necessary, it is a fact that a large majority of millionaires are college educated and have advanced degrees.7  Education is important.  To make matters worse, tuition has increased so much over the past 20 years that middle class families are already struggling to justify getting advanced degrees while those in the top 10%, and especially the top 1%, are spending more on education1.  The obvious implications being that the wealthy will continue to pull away from those in the lower and middle class as they have easier access to basic opportunities, as has been building over the past several decades.  There are some simple explanations as to why the gap between classes continue to widen.  By taxing waved tuition and stipends while eliminating the deductions, a bigger burden will be created on many just starting out, a barrier placed on entry for many who would decide the cost isn’t worth it, and it would hobble future research and academic advancements.  Another issue  is that many give to charities because of the tax incentives in place for doing so.  Of course, I would hope that many would still donate but I also realistically know that there would be a sharp reduction in charitable giving under the provisions of the proposed plans2.  In addition, including the provision that the individual tax cuts expire and including the cut to the individual mandate as part of tax reform is a cheap and irresponsible play.
I have one more issue with the proposed tax plans that hasn’t been discussed much.  Having fewer tax brackets sounds nice and simple.  But, it seems that those that write these have never been on the lower end of the spectrum because it’s common as one grows in many careers that their income will go from, let’s say, $45,000 one year to $45,500 the next (or $38,500 to $39,000 for the senate plan).  This would result in a large jump in tax rate from 10% to 20% or 12% to 22% depending on the plan, which makes a substantial difference for this group.  This is also the case with the current tax brackets as it jumps from 15% to 25%.  While some people will see lower taxes at a certain income level under the new proposals, they don't solve the issue of some having to pay much more in taxes after being rewarded with a raise at work.
I haven’t even brought up corporate taxes yet.  The misleading statement that the US has the highest taxes in the world just isn’t true.  Plus, there are so many incentives, loopholes, and breaks that the effective rate is more around the 20% range as proven by our own US Department of Treasury.3  Again, I’m all for business succeeding and given fair opportunities to do so.  However, large tax cuts right now are not the way to go.  The money would go to large investors and the idea of most of it ‘trickling down’ just doesn’t happen.  Even so, I’d perhaps be willing to give some components of it a shot if we were in a different situation, but adding to the deficit in such a manner in the situation we are in is reckless, if not immoral.  We can do better.  Obviously, there is a lot more to the bill, both good and bad, than listed here.  But, I’ll trust you to look those up if you’re interested.
* So, here is my proposal (caveat:  I've focused on single payers below, but the concept would be the same for other filings.  Also, I don’t have a CBO score and haven’t run the numbers to see exactly how it affects the deficit, so I would need to see how those come out when I have the time, money, and people 😉.  ):
THE DAVID K. WILLIAMS PROPOSED TAX PLAN
·         Continually increasing tax ‘brackets’
o   The highest income in each current bracket would see no change.
o   The rates would increase steadily between the current brackets on a percentage of income basis
o   Rates would increase from 5% to 40%
o   It is very SIMPLE with no large jump in rates
o   No one would see a tax increase, with the exception of a mere 0.4% increase for those making over $450,000, and most would see at least a little bit of a reduction.  (I could be persuaded to possibly make the top level $500,000 depending on how the deficit numbers work out)
o    My proposed rates for single filers can be found below
·         Reduce corporate tax rates from 35% to 30%
o   This would give a bump to corporations to help further stimulate growth
o   This is much more realistic than the reduction to 20% that has been proposed
·         Keep the deductions common among the lower and middle classes and which help important segments of society. 
·         Allow a $4,000 personal exemption (down slightly from $4,050) with a slight increase in standard deduction to $6,500 (from $6,350).
·         Make long term capital gains tax rates 15% up until the top bracket, which would continue to be at 20% (wealthy investors often record little, if any, ‘income’ and thus pay 0% in the current system.)
·         Adjust the second-home mortgage interest deduction to debt as high as $250,000 (currently at $1 million)
·         Reduce or severely limit other ‘special interest’ deductions such as the Carried Interest Loophole and golf course tax while leaving others, like the estate tax, as is5. 
o   The 0.4% increase on the upper levels along with these changes would help pay for the other tax cuts without hampering any individual’s way of life. 
**   This plan allows for easy manipulation, as required, due to changes in the economy.  Simply adjust the rates evenly either up or down, lower the top rate and adjust the others accordingly, adjust the income levels more fairly or evenly throughout the scale, etc.
***  Much more would obviously go into it, but this would be the general backbone and starting point.
CURRENT LAW COMPARED TO THE HOUSE AND SENATE TAX PLANS:

THE DAVID K. WILLIAMS PROPOSED PLAN
TAX BRACKETS FOR SINGLE FILERS
5%
 $             -  
 $  1,865
21%
 $    70,321
 $ 75,715
6%
 $      1,866
 $  3,730
22%
 $    75,716
 $ 81,110
7%
 $      3,731
 $  5,595
23%
 $    81,111
 $ 86,505
8%
 $      5,596
 $  7,460
24%
 $    86,506
 $ 91,900
9%
 $      7,461
 $  9,325
25%
 $    91,901
 $ 125,150
10%
 $      9,326
 $  15,050
26%
 $  125,151
 $ 158,400
11%
 $    15,051
 $  20,775
27%
 $  158,401
 $ 191,650
12%
 $    20,776
 $  26,500
28%
 $  191,651
 $ 236,660
13%
 $    26,501
 $  32,225
29%
 $  236,661
 $ 281,670
14%
 $    32,226
 $  37,950
30%
 $  281,671
 $ 326,680
15%
 $    37,951
 $  43,345
31%
 $  326,681
 $ 371,690
16%
 $    43,346
 $  48,740
32%
 $  371,691
 $ 416,700
17%
 $    48,741
 $  54,135
33%
 $  416,701
 $ 417,550
18%
 $    54,136
 $  59,530
34%
 $  417,551
 $ 418,400
19%
 $    59,531
 $  64,925
35%
 $  418,401
 $ 424,720
20%
 $    64,926
 $  70,320
36%
 $  424,721
 $ 431,040

37%
 $  431,041
 $ 437,360

38%
 $  437,361
 $ 443,680

39%
 $  443,681
 $ 450,000

40%
 $  450,001
 $ 450,001 + 







Standard deduction:       $6,500
Personal exemption:      $4,000

Think it could possibly work?





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